President Muhammadu Buhari, who was inaugurated May
29, is the antithesis of the stereotypical Nigerian politician: incorruptible,
soft-spoken, self-effacing and deliberate.
He embraces the nickname “Baba Go-Slow and Steady.” Buhari’s unhurried
style has its downsides, however: It took him an unprecedented four months to
name a solid but un-extraordinary cabinet.
His reform agenda appears to be sauntering out of the gates, according
to the civil society-run Buharimeter.
In the meantime, the challenges facing Africa’s most
populous nation and largest economy continue to grow: Oil revenues are down,
currency value has slipped and Boko Haram has killed more than 1,700 since
June. Nigerians nevertheless expect
their new president’s reform agenda to show tangible results, and soon. Given
these imperatives, here are five things Buhari can do to get the ball rolling:
1.
Carefully clean house. Buhari’s reform agenda probably
faces its greatest threat from corrupt, old-school politicians within his own
All Progressives Congress (APC) party.
Buhari should neutralize some of the APC’s shadiest figures, who could
emerge as “veto players,” as described in Carl LeVan’s recent book.
Examples of these kleptocrats are not hard to
find. The U.S. Department of Justice has
accused one sitting APC governor of helping former dictator Sani Abacha steal
at least $458 million from state coffers.
Likewise, both APC candidates in the upcoming Kogi and Bayelsa State
governorship elections have been indicted by Nigeria’s anti-corruption agency.
Admittedly, housecleaning carries political risks
for Buhari. After all, his victorious electoral coalition included powerful
defectors from former president Goodluck Jonathan’s People’s Democratic Party
(PDP). If he unduly antagonizes these establishment
figures, they could derail his party’s newfound dominance by joining their
former comrades in the opposition PDP.
2.
Pare down the parastatals.
Buhari has an opportunity to realize immediate savings by eliminating or
merging some of Nigeria’s more than 500 federal parastatals and boards.
Parastatals are government-operated companies or commercial agencies. Pundits allege that past presidents used
parastatal appointments to cultivate national political allies and provincial
cronies. These institutions, which range
from the lucrative to the modest to the moribund, have long been a cornerstone
of corruption in Nigeria — a complicated topic expertly explained by Daniel
Jordan Smith.
Buhari may also want to disband some nice-to-have
but non-essential parastatals in light of competing priorities and current
fiscal constraints. Does Nigeria need to
spend more than $4 million annually on a Center for Space Transport and
Propulsion? Is there an effort underway to rescue the supposedly stranded
Nigerian astronaut featured in this legendary scam letter?
 |
| President Muhammadu Buhari |
3.
Tame the white elephants.
Buhari’s apparent determination to revive two “white elephant” economic
sectors — domestic oil refineries and steel mills — worry industry
experts. Nigeria is replete with these
kinds of investment projects where state-owned enterprises are funded for long
periods even if they incur huge losses.
For decades, Nigerian leaders have thrown good money after bad at these
projects because, as Robinson and Torvik argue, white elephant projects yield
short-term political gains.
Buhari, like any of the rest of us, could stumble
into a sunk cost dilemma where his efforts to maximize future returns of
Nigeria’s white elephants only increase their cumulative losses. Instead, he
should address the graft, inconsistent policies and opaque privatization deals
that experts say turned these industries into white elephants in the first
place.
4.
Rein in subnational debt.
As Buhari tries to put Nigeria’s public finances back in order, the
balance sheets of the country’s 36 states are sinking deeper into the red. In a decentralized federal system like
Nigeria’s, state budgets typically affect the lives of ordinary citizens more than
federal spending does. Since taking office, Buhari has already bailed out 27
cash-strapped states to the tune of $2.1 billion. States’ borrowing trends are risky and need
to be addressed, according to a recent report by the African Development Bank.
All but a few states generate minimal revenue
outside of their monthly allocation of Nigeria’s anemic oil income. While Nigeria’s national debt is still
relatively low by global standards, fiscal federalism means that if states
default on their debts, the federal government foots the bill. Buhari’s reasons for watching state borrowing
should also be personal: One of the stated reasons for the 1983 military coup
that first brought him to power was runaway borrowing by state governors.
5.
Legislate for the long run.
Nigeria will need to feel the “Buhari Effect” (the sense, evident in a
recent New York Times article, that there is a new sheriff in town) long after
the president’s tenure is over. The best
way for him to protect his legacy is to partner with the National Assembly to
enact legislation enshrining key reforms.
With few other politicians like him on the horizon, Buhari should put his
legacy in writing.
A good place to start would be an act prohibiting
the use of “security votes.” Both a definitive article by Uche et al. and a
2007 Human Rights Watch report illustrate how these secretive budgetary line
items are used by officials at all levels of government as slush funds. Even
Nigeria’s leading anti-corruption agency had a $1,000,000 security vote
included in its 2014 budget. Buhari has his work cut out for him.
Matthew
Page is an international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
You can follow him on Twitter at @MatthewTPage.
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